Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 19 2020 | 2674 | 27683 | 90 | 9 | 366 | 522 |
| October 20 2020 | 2736 | 27869 | 99 | 11 | 395 | 552 |
| October 21 2020 | 2783 | 27993 | 99 | 12 | 390 | 572 |
| October 22 2020 | 2850 | 28259 | 103 | 12 | 450 | 586 |
| October 23 2020 | 2941 | 28410 | 104 | 12 | 487 | 633 |
| October 24 2020 | 3057 | 28646 | 109 | 12 | 586 | 716 |
| October 25 2020 | 3142 | 28788 | 110 | 12 | 634 | 749 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 3.7 | 4.4% | 28 | 0.24% | 32 | 0.28% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 10.3 | 14.5% | 92 | 0.68% | 118 | 0.87% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 16.0 | 22.9% | 145 | 0.69% | 168 | 0.8% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 11.0 | 13.4% | 85 | 0.62% | 103 | 0.76% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 8.1 | 11.7% | 74 | 0.71% | 84 | 0.8% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 7.7 | 11.2% | 71 | 0.57% | 78 | 0.62% |
| 60-69 | 17 | 9.0 | 12.5% | 79 | 0.69% | 92 | 0.8% |
| 70+ | 6 | 6.6 | 9.5% | 60 | 0.57% | 74 | 0.71% |
| All ages | 85 | 72.4 | 100% | 634 | 0.61% | 749 | 0.72% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 19 2020 | 1124 | 17459 | 43 | 5 | 361 | 475 |
| October 20 2020 | 1130 | 17583 | 48 | 6 | 343 | 463 |
| October 21 2020 | 1215 | 17691 | 48 | 7 | 403 | 517 |
| October 22 2020 | 1279 | 17885 | 48 | 7 | 446 | 549 |
| October 23 2020 | 1318 | 18021 | 51 | 10 | 459 | 555 |
| October 24 2020 | 1397 | 18158 | 55 | 11 | 510 | 610 |
| October 25 2020 | 1397 | 18256 | 55 | 11 | 438 | 585 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.9 | 3.2% | 14 | 0.18% | 18 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 4.0 | 7.8% | 34 | 0.4% | 45 | 0.54% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 5.4 | 12.1% | 53 | 0.75% | 82 | 1.15% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 10.0 | 18.3% | 80 | 0.95% | 106 | 1.26% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 8.7 | 16.7% | 73 | 0.94% | 97 | 1.25% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 9.1 | 18% | 79 | 0.81% | 104 | 1.07% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 7.0 | 13% | 57 | 0.68% | 74 | 0.88% |
| 70+ | 0 | 6.6 | 11.9% | 52 | 0.73% | 63 | 0.89% |
| All ages | 0 | 52.1 | 100% | 438 | 0.68% | 585 | 0.9% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 19 2020 | 803 | 11335 | 35 | 6 | 228 | 281 |
| October 20 2020 | 827 | 11393 | 35 | 6 | 229 | 299 |
| October 21 2020 | 858 | 11450 | 37 | 6 | 240 | 323 |
| October 22 2020 | 895 | 11599 | 38 | 6 | 264 | 342 |
| October 23 2020 | 931 | 11712 | 39 | 6 | 286 | 356 |
| October 24 2020 | 970 | 11813 | 39 | 6 | 292 | 372 |
| October 25 2020 | 1016 | 11896 | 39 | 6 | 315 | 398 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 19 2020 | 3817 | 30695 | 77 | 15 | 331 | 481 |
| October 20 2020 | 3868 | 30854 | 78 | 15 | 352 | 495 |
| October 21 2020 | 3907 | 31009 | 79 | 15 | 372 | 508 |
| October 22 2020 | 3961 | 31309 | 79 | 17 | 395 | 520 |
| October 23 2020 | 3984 | 31496 | 80 | 17 | 397 | 498 |
| October 24 2020 | 4025 | 31665 | 83 | 20 | 420 | 509 |
| October 25 2020 | 4083 | 31786 | 86 | 20 | 426 | 548 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.1 | 2.6% | 11 | 0.09% | 15 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 4.1 | 8.7% | 37 | 0.22% | 56 | 0.34% |
| 20-29 | 20 | 13.0 | 27.5% | 117 | 0.55% | 143 | 0.67% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 6.1 | 14.1% | 60 | 0.44% | 75 | 0.55% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 6.1 | 12.9% | 55 | 0.4% | 74 | 0.54% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 7.7 | 15.7% | 67 | 0.47% | 79 | 0.56% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 4.1 | 11% | 47 | 0.33% | 61 | 0.43% |
| 70+ | 4 | 4.0 | 7.5% | 32 | 0.25% | 45 | 0.35% |
| All ages | 58 | 46.4 | 100% | 426 | 0.36% | 548 | 0.46% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 19 2020 | 12516 | 228420 | 463 | 46 | 1481 | 2002 |
| October 20 2020 | 12821 | 229152 | 468 | 46 | 1581 | 2150 |
| October 21 2020 | 13121 | 229610 | 473 | 46 | 1700 | 2387 |
| October 22 2020 | 13315 | 230959 | 489 | 47 | 1730 | 2474 |
| October 23 2020 | 13555 | 232185 | 489 | 47 | 1862 | 2520 |
| October 24 2020 | 13831 | 233596 | 495 | 48 | 1976 | 2591 |
| October 25 2020 | 14126 | 234714 | 505 | 48 | 2054 | 2705 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 16 | 10.9 | 4.7% | 97 | 0.16% | 127 | 0.21% |
| 10-19 | 39 | 25.9 | 11.5% | 236 | 0.33% | 329 | 0.46% |
| 20-29 | 70 | 56.9 | 24% | 492 | 0.47% | 635 | 0.61% |
| 30-39 | 48 | 37.3 | 16.6% | 340 | 0.44% | 442 | 0.58% |
| 40-49 | 45 | 35.1 | 14.9% | 307 | 0.47% | 410 | 0.62% |
| 50-59 | 25 | 30.4 | 13.2% | 272 | 0.41% | 362 | 0.55% |
| 60-69 | 23 | 19.1 | 8.7% | 178 | 0.33% | 239 | 0.44% |
| 70+ | 29 | 15.4 | 6.4% | 132 | 0.27% | 161 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 295 | 231.0 | 100% | 2054 | 0.38% | 2705 | 0.49% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 19 2020 | 173891 | 1703813 | 9319 | 1600 | 29073 | 39532 |
| October 20 2020 | 178482 | 1712883 | 9537 | 1633 | 30922 | 42103 |
| October 21 2020 | 182687 | 1718564 | 9704 | 1681 | 32451 | 43989 |
| October 22 2020 | 186100 | 1730646 | 9855 | 1703 | 33908 | 44270 |
| October 23 2020 | 190478 | 1744072 | 10038 | 1745 | 35007 | 45660 |
| October 24 2020 | 194540 | 1757630 | 10237 | 1770 | 35962 | 46980 |
| October 25 2020 | 198166 | 1768026 | 10332 | 1778 | 35841 | 47930 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 159 | 147.1 | 3.7% | 1322 | 0.21% | 1743 | 0.27% |
| 10-19 | 351 | 378.0 | 9.5% | 3420 | 0.45% | 4545 | 0.6% |
| 20-29 | 674 | 687.0 | 17.1% | 6128 | 0.81% | 8189 | 1.08% |
| 30-39 | 613 | 638.9 | 16% | 5729 | 0.76% | 7650 | 1.01% |
| 40-49 | 565 | 596.6 | 14.9% | 5332 | 0.76% | 7080 | 1.01% |
| 50-59 | 564 | 671.6 | 16.8% | 6009 | 0.74% | 8104 | 0.99% |
| 60-69 | 421 | 476.1 | 11.9% | 4249 | 0.56% | 5737 | 0.76% |
| 70+ | 279 | 412.1 | 10.2% | 3652 | 0.57% | 4882 | 0.76% |
| All ages | 3626 | 4007.4 | 100% | 35841 | 0.62% | 47930 | 0.82% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71.6 | 86.7 | 80.3 | 72.4 | 37.1 | 22.2% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90.5 | 52.1 | 27 | 22.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 33.6 | 20.4 | 20.9% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.4 | 33.8 | 67.2 | 46.4 | 29.4 | 17.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.5 | 46.3 | 61.1 | 231 | 160.1 | 13% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82.3 | 60 | 108.2 | 4007.4 | 2840 | 21.5% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 15.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.39 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-15 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1865"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges